Initially published May 5th 2017
Today I developed a crypto currency hedge fund strategy. I’m using Coinbase to execute all trades.
Why Bet on the Game
Essentially, this is a tiny portion of my overall investment account. Indeed, I don’t actually call this part of my investment plan. This is just a fun way to stay up to date with crypto-currencies and do a bit of gambling.
Crypto-currencies have the potential to dramatically shake up the global financial system. While studying economics at the University of Nevada, I learned a lot about monetary relations.
I have a perceptions that the financial industry plays an important role in the security and mobility of capital for individuals and companies around the world. Though I believe the institutions are important, I also believe that organizations like these are using their importance to behave sub-optimally.
As I don’t pretend to have any idea on what is going to happen with any specific currency, I’ll just bet evenly across all of those coins avaliable on Coinbase.
I’ll use a risk assessment which is entirely emotional on my part to make decisions on the ratio of cash to coins. I’m sure it would be better to create an algorithm to balance dollar weight average or find some sort of relationship between ‘bitcoin’ tweet frequency and the coin price… but that would take a lot of time and I’m primarily focused on other things.
Assessing Risk to Balance Portfolio
Since I’m gambling, I get to make up the way I hedge the fund. I came up with the following idea.
I’ll make fund balancing decisions based on how I feel about the currency market:
- Low (0% Cash) – When I feel that the currencies are at their historical lowest, I’ll take from the cash and invest in currencies.
- Medium (12% Cash) – When I feel that the currencies could go either way, I’ll take from the cash and invest in currencies.
- High (25% Cash) – When I feel that the currencies are at their highest and are likely to fall, I’ll take from the cash and invest in currencies.
When I feel that the currencies are overvalued, I’ll hold more cash. When I feel they are selling for less, I’ll hold less cash. Overall, I’ll hold at least 75% of the account at all times.
I plan to trade, at the very most, in 30 day increments. This is a long game. I expect to be holding crypto-currencies late into life so I’m in no rush here.
Here is an example of my most recent balancing spreadsheet:
In Coinbase I was able to execute two sell orders denominated in USD. Then a buy order for Litecoin. From logging into the platform, to deciding on a strategy to executing the orders, this took me about 1 hour.
Some people bet on horses, I like betting on crypto currencies.
My dominating theory here is that I have no idea what these currencies will do. I don’t know if one has a chance for implosion, or if one has a chance to be the next bitcoin.
If Litecoin or Ethereum grows from $25 per coin to $1000 per coin like Bitcoin did in 2013, I want to hold a few of them.
That is why I’m only betting emotionally. That is why I’ll restrict my buy/sell decision to impacting, at the very most, 25% of the portfolio.
The rest I’ll leave to chance and time.
Updated September 9th 2017
Well this thing is looking more like a bubble every day.
I haven’t been keeping track at all since May 2017. It was totally out of sight and out of mind. Today I look at the numbers and my crypto currency account total looks like this:
September 2017 Order Planning
So I’ll be selling off BTC and ETH to buy LTC, GNT, TNT and OMG.
All my BTC, ETH and LTC coins are stored at Coinbase. All my other stuff is on a market called Luiqui. To buy GNT, TNT and OMG I’ll need to transfer $380.85 worth of BTC to Luqui. Then I’ll cash out $85.46 from BTC, and $365.65 from ETH. The next move will be to transfer $125.42 worth of ETH to LTC.
Finally, as you have to buy coins with BTC/ETH on Liqui, I’ll use the transferred BTC to buy TNT and OMG.
Buying TNT and OMG
The price in BTC of TNT is 0.00002980 at the time of writing this.
I’ll buy 0.03587 BTC worth.
The price in BTC of OMG is0.00287464 at the time of writing this.
I’ll buy 0.03587 BTC worth.
When I first tried, the prices kept going up. Therefore I would put out buy orders and no one would sell as the prices were higher than my orders.
So I just bought higher than the market a little in order to secure the coins to the account.
Finally, I need to up my GNT levels by $70.10 worth of BTC (0.01625 at the time of writing this).
Phew. I guess this is why some people call trading a job. I’ve balanced my portfolio. Now time to go outside and forget about this for a few months.
Taking Money Out
The most important thing in bubble surfing is to take money out.
My guess at this point is that I’ll take 10% of the account out each balancing. I’ll put that 10% into index funds or something boring like that.
Today, I can’t pull my ‘USD Wallet’ out. It takes a few days to verify the bank account I want to use to send the money.
Surfing on Bubbles
Please don’t mistake this for a commendation for crypto currencies as a way to make money. I believe these prices are ludicrous. I expect this to be a bubble which will certainly pop.
Blockchain technology is no joke. It’s a legit scientific development. It’s like a new element that humans have created. I believe a lot of value will come due to the technological leap that is bitcoin. That said, markets grow, bubble and pop because of humans being irrational. High coin prices, I guess, will fall just like the value of dutch tulips in 1622.